Illegal immigration dropped by 98% in 4 key countries

Illegal immigration from the four countries until recently considered the most problematic has fallen by 98% over the past two years. The recently published Border Patrol Immigration Data show a stunning reversal for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Analysts credit Biden administration’s use of legal channels, June 2024 decree on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Illegal entries are lower today than when Donald Trump left office, a fact neither side mentioned on the campaign trail.

The latest figures on illegal immigration

If you look at Donald Trump’s ralliesyou would never know that in September 2024, border patrols on the southwest border fell to 53,858, a figure far lower than the 75,316 encounters in January 2021, when Trump was president. Encounters remained below 60,000 each month starting in July 2024. Encounters with Border Patrol were higher in January 2021 than in September 2024, even though the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has slowed the rate. economy in Trump’s final month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the fewer illegal entries.)

Most Americans are unaware of how much illegal immigration has declined, particularly from the four countries that have received the most attention in 2022. As of December 2022, Border Patrol apprehended at the southwest border 24,764 Venezuelans, 15,280 Nicaraguans, 7,960 Cubans and 1,392 Haitians, totaling 49,396 meetings from the four countries.

As of September 2024, border patrol encounters were down 98% for people from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti, falling to 1,003. The Biden administration’s decision to establish programs humanitarian parole proved decisive. By allowing 30,000 people from the four countries to enter each month and obtain work authorization, Biden officials created a legal pathway and secured cooperation from the Mexican government to accept similar numbers of people deported from Venezuela, Nicaragua, from Cuba and Haiti. Deporting people from these four countries back to their home countries can be difficult or impossible.

According to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy, encounters with border patrols decreased by 92% for Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans between December 2022 (the month before parole programs begin) and November 2023, while they increased by 18% for individuals from countries without parole. .

The figures show a similar trend over a longer period. Encounters with Border Patrol for people from countries without humanitarian parole programs decreased by 56% between December 2022 and September 2024. That’s far less than the 98% drop during the same period for Cubans , Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, who had access to the legal entry offered by the humanitarian parole program.

Once Haitians were able to enter legally through exemptions at ports of entry, their migration patterns changed. Refugee groups say the waivers have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of Haitians attempting to cross the border illegally. Border Patrol encounters decreased from 7,762 in May 2022 to 145 in June 2022, illustrating an immediate impact. Yael Schacher of Refugees International said a Washington Circuit Court ruling in June 2022 said families could not be expelled without review, contributing to the increased use of waivers.

Analysts note the exceptions to Title 42 deportation authorities and the ability to use the CBP One app have helped reduce illegal migration from Haiti. “This means that legal channels can be more effective than deterrence,” said Tom Cartwright of Witness at the Border.

Trump’s illegal immigration policies unlikely to be effective

If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, we can expect policies similar to those of his last occupation of the White House. His policies will focus on enforcement, including his promise to hire 10,000 more Border Patrol agents. Another question is what observers see as a potentially brutal policy aimed at expel millions of long-time residents living in the United States without legal status.

According to an NFAP analysis historical data, relying on government spending on immigration control has not reduced illegal immigration: “Research shows an overall lack of correlation between illegal entry and the number of Border Patrol agents and immigration enforcement spending. The analysis finds that using work visas and humanitarian legal pathways is a more effective and humane way to reduce the number of people entering the United States illegally.

In the 1990s, an increase in Border Patrol agents and a shift in strategy toward deterrence pushed immigrants across the border into more dangerous areas. As a result, more workers stayed in the United States rather than risk their lives crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. There was an unexpected consequence. According to the Department of Homeland Security, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States increased from 3.5 million to 11.8 million between 1990 and 2007.

Many people have criticized the Biden administration for the number of people coming to the U.S. border fleeing political and economic crises in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America. However, until May 2023, the Biden administration continued the Covid-era Trump administration’s Title 42 policy, which generally allowed border personnel to expel people who crossed the border without authorizing a request for authorization. ‘asylum.

An NFAP analysis found that despite critics claiming Joe Biden had an “open borders” policy, the Biden administration expelled 2,518,215 people using Title 42 Authorityagainst 442,693 expelled with title 42 under Trump. The increased use of Title 42 during the Biden years is partly due to the length of time the Biden administration maintained this policy.

When Donald Trump was president, his administration could not stop Central Americans and others from coming to the United States, many of them fleeing serious problems in their home countries. Under Trump, Border Patrol arrests on the southwest border increased by more than 100% between fiscal years 2016 and 2019 (from 408,870 to 851,508). When the Covid-19 pandemic began, border patrols on the southwest border decreased, but increased by more than 300%, from 16,182 in April 2020 to 69,032 in October 2020.

Donald Trump will make it harder to control illegal immigration if he ends the humanitarian parole program and stops the use of the CBP One app that allows individuals to receive an appointment at a port of entry . If there is no way to legally enter and seek asylum or obtain work, many people may choose to try their luck by crossing illegally.