What if Russia won in Ukraine? We already see the shadows of a dark 2025

There are human activities in which both sides can win. War is not one of them. Either Ukraine Russia is winning this war. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba bluntly stated that unless the current trajectory is changed, “we will lose this war.”

Let’s be clear: this is always avoidable. Suppose that the roughly four-fifths of Ukrainian territory still controlled by kyiv receives military commitments from the West strong enough to deter further Russian advances, ensure large-scale investment in economic reconstruction, encourage Ukrainians to return from abroad to rebuild their country and enable stable, pro-European policy and reforms. In five years, the country will join the EU, and then, under the new US administration, will begin the process of joining NATO. Most of Ukraine becomes a sovereign, independent and free country, firmly anchored to the West.

The loss of a large part of the territory, the suffering of at least 3.5 million Ukrainians living under Russian occupation and the number of dead, maimed and traumatized would represent a terrible cost. It would not be the complete victory that the Ukrainians hoped for and deserve; but it would still be a victory for Ukraine and a historic defeat for Russia. A majority of Ukrainians might come to view it as such. In a poll that the kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shared with me in advance, Ukrainians are asked whether they could (although with difficulty) accept the combination of economic reconstruction and membership in the European Union and NATO for the current territory. In the last six months alone, the proportion of yes respondents has increased from 47% to 64%.

However, achieving this result with Donald Trump in the White House would require a willing European coalition that makes security commitments of a scale and audacity never seen before. European leaders are becoming more and more aware of this, but the democratic policies of most European countries are far from giving them the means to do so. To try to persuade Europeans to support the necessary policies, but also to understand the consequences if they do not do so in time – as seems very likely – the question we must ask ourselves is: what if Russia won?

If Russia wins, we should reasonably expect the following consequences for Ukraine, Europe, the United States and world peace. Ukraine would be defeated, divided, demoralized and depopulated. Money would not come to rebuild the country; instead, another wave of people would leave it. Politics would become rancorous, with a strong anti-Western tendency. New possibilities for Russian disinformation and political destabilization would emerge. Necessary reforms would stagnate and therefore also progress towards EU membership.

Europe as a whole would see an escalation of the hybrid war that Russia is already waging against it, and still largely unnoticed by most Western Europeans who are blithely doing their Christmas shopping. Not a week goes by without incident: a Russian destroyer fires a flare on a German military helicopter; There is DHL packages explodingsabotage on the French railwaysA arson on a Ukrainian business in east London; submarine cables in the Baltic Sea they are cut off; there is a credible death threat to a major German arms manufacturer. Not all of them can be attributed with certainty to Moscow, but many can.

Full-spectrum hybrid warfare includes election interference. In Georgia, the elections were rigged. In the Moldovan EU referendum, around 9% of votes were directly bought by Russia, according to the presidentMaia Sandu. In Romania, the first round of the presidential election will be repeated, because a court found Large-scale violation of campaign rules on TikTok. “Ah, it’s Eastern Europe!” » exclaims the complacent Christmas buyer in Madrid, Rome or Düsseldorf. But the head of Germany’s internal security service recently warned that Russia will try to interfere in the German general elections in February, which are hardly marginal for the future of Europe.

In December, we saw President Vladimir Putin extremely confident again during his annual marathon end-of-year press conference and phone call to the Tsar’s appeal, despite the recent Ukrainian assassination of his general ADM. It is now a war economy, dependent on military production to support its growth, and a dictatorship defined by confrontation with the West. It would be more than naive to hope that diplomacy could reach a magical moment when Putin’s Russia would suddenly be “satisfied” with the outcome in Ukraine and return to its usual peacetime business. When NATO planners say we should be ready for possible Russian aggression against NATO territory by 2029, they are not just peddling horror stories in an effort to increase budgets military.

Maga voters in the United States might ask, “well, what does that matter to us?” You Europeans, take care of yourselves! We have to worry about China.” But Russia is now working more closely than ever with China, North Korea and Iran. Putin may be indicted by the International Criminal Court, but he still travels half the world as a welcome guest. He himself spoke of a new “world majority” and “the formation of a completely new world order.” In this new order, war and territorial conquest are entirely acceptable political instruments, on a continuum of poisoning, sabotage, disinformation and electoral interference. Russia’s victory in Ukraine will encourage China to step up pressure on Taiwan and North Korea on South Korea.

This brings us to the most serious consequence of all: nuclear proliferation. Remember, Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, in exchange for security guarantees from the US, UK and Russia – and was then hammered by one of the powers who had promised him security. In the latest KIIS poll, 73% of Ukrainians support the “restoration of nuclear weapons” of Ukraine. Remarkably, 46% say they would do so even if the West imposed sanctions and stopped aid. In fact, the Ukrainians are saying to the West: if you don’t defend us, we will (expletive deleted) ourselves. During recent visits to Ukraine, I was repeatedly told: “It’s NATO or nuclear weapons!” But it’s not just about Ukraine. Vulnerable countries around the world, also looking at what is happening in the Middle East, will draw the same conclusion. The more countries – and possibly non-state actors – acquire nuclear weapons, the more certain it is that they will one day be used.

In the German elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz shamelessly and shamefully attempted to exploit the fear of nuclear war to gain an electoral advantage over his party. main rivalthe Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz. In fact, it is precisely the consequences of Western self-deterrence through fear of Russian nuclear escalation in Ukraine, embodied by Scholz and skillfully exploited by Putin, that increase the likelihood of nuclear proliferation and therefore the long-term risk of a nuclear war. .

The conclusion is clear and sadly familiar. The reluctance of European democracies to pay a high price means that the world will pay an even higher price later.