Could the FBI have prevented the terrorist attack in New Orleans?

Details continue to emerge about the life of Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the Islamic State-inspired suspect in the New Orleans terror attack that killed at least 15 people and injured dozens more in the first hours of the New Year.

Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran from Texas, drove his pickup truck into the crowd gathered for New Year’s Eve celebrations in the Louisiana city’s party district, Bourbon Street, then began to to pull. The police shot Jabbar dead.

THE FBI is investigating how Jabbar became radicalized and whether others were involved in organizing the attack. Jabbar allegedly recorded videos while driving from home from Texas to New Orleans where he talked about joining the Islamic State.

A question observers are asking in the aftermath is: Could the FBI have prevented the attack on New Orleans? News week asked the experts for their opinion. Here’s what they told us.

Daniel Byman, professor and director of the security studies program at Georgetown University; Senior Researcher, Center for Strategic and International Studies

The FBI has prevented numerous attacks and foiled numerous plots. However, there is a high random factor and it is unrealistic to expect the FBI to stop every plot, although it may reduce the numbers significantly.

Bruce Hoffman, senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security, Council on Foreign Relations; President, The Hoffman GroupCT

It will soon, but probably not.

Martha Crenshaw, Senior Fellow, Emeritus, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University; Professor of Government, Emeritus, Wesleyan University

It is difficult to detect and stop individuals who act without communication or organizational support – acting largely through inspiration and imitation.

Harvey Wolf Kushner, chair and professor of the Department of Criminal Justice, Long Island University

Yes, the FBI could have done a better job preventing the attack on New Orleans. How? By devoting more energy and resources to combating all forms of Islamic terrorism and focusing less on reinventing the term terrorism to broaden its meaning.

Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations, London School of Economics; Author of ISIS: a history

There are limits to what the FBI and other security agencies can do to prevent terrorist attacks, like the one in New Orleans. The lone wolf phenomenon is extremely difficult to anticipate and prevent. It is almost impossible to enter the mind of an individual committed and determined to kill at random.

Michael S. Smith II, terrorism analyst and international security consultant specializing in ISIS and Al-Qaeda influence operations

It is increasingly common for reports to suggest that the FBI was aware of the potential that perpetrators of terrorist attacks could pose threats to public safety.

Indeed, the Bureau has become much more effective in identifying individuals and groups of individuals whose behaviors indicate that they are likely to ISISor other terrorist groups.

It is too early to judge whether this attack could have been avoided.

In the meantime, in addition to conducting a rigorous investigation to determine whether this is the case, I think the FBI should engage more openly with Congress through public hearings on laws and related internal protocols that may limit the abilities of its and other agencies to prevent terrorist attacks, with a view to opportunities to modify existing laws or implement new laws that may to more broadly strengthen America’s national security posture against violent extremism, without further undermining the spirit of our Constitution.

Congress itself is rarely a source of creative ideas on how to better respond to threats from international and domestic terrorism. Typically, this information comes from outside experts or officials within the national security enterprise.

Therefore, the Office should have the opportunity to help Members of Congress and the public understand what could be done to strengthen U.S. national security in the face of continuing threats related to ISIS, as well as growing threats related to violent extremism in general.

Despite its founding mandate and despite its massive budgets, DHS has never demonstrated leadership in the fight against terrorism. So the best ideas about what can be done better or differently, and the adjustments to existing laws and protocols needed to get there, will come from the FBI, as well as the CIA And NSA.

Tricia Bacon, Associate Professor, School of Public Affairs, American University; Author, Why terrorist groups form international alliances

It is unclear from the information available at this point whether the FBI could have prevented the attack.

Mia Bloom, professor of communications and Middle Eastern studies, Georgia State University; International Security Fellow, New America

The barricades (bollards) that were usually in place were down (for a few weeks) before the Superbowl. If Shamsud were a lone actor and not part of a cell, it would be very difficult to detect lone actors in advance.

However, in 73% of cases, single actors reveal elements of the plot to their family and friends. There are reports that Jabbar did it. This is where the onus is on people to come forward (if you see something, say something). This is how Ted Kaczynski was arrested.

But there is a massive bystander effect (for example, the Boston Marathon Bomber told his roommates at UMass Dartmouth that they “didn’t want to get him in trouble”).

Lone actors are harder to detect but easier to find…although in cases of ram vehicle accidents, they are often killed at the scene.

Paul R. Pillar, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University

Probably not. It simply has no way of knowing every malicious person who might carry out this type of attack. Evidence of the individual’s affinity for the Islamic State does not necessarily indicate that the attack itself was the work of a larger organization that the FBI could track or penetrate.

Updated 1/25/25, 11:04 a.m. ET: Comments from Mia Bloom and Paul R. Pillar have been added.