Trump’s `ion dome ” must succeed where Reagan’s` `Star Wars ” failed – twin cities

President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that the United States would pursue an iron dome National anti -missile defense system took a page of Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” initiative for decades.

Like Reagan’s never made plan for a system to “intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before reaching our own soil or that of our allies”, Trump’s vision for “the Iron Dome for America” ​​is both swept and stimulating. He will face the same types of obstacles to which Reagan faced Reagan, who speculated in 1983 that he “might not be accomplished before the end of this century”.

However, given the threats and opportunities created by the revolutionary progress of technology and a geopolitical landscape quickly changing, the United States has no other alternative than to grasp what quickly becomes an existential challenge. How can it be done?

The idea of ​​an “iron dome” is designed to echo the very effective Israeli defense system that defended the Israeli population for years. But Trump’s executive order tastes the Ministry of Defense to create something much more complex than the current Israeli iron dome.

The new system will use an approach to the system system to thwart enemy ballistic missiles as well as the defeat of hypersonic and cruise missiles. As with the Reagan system 40 years ago, it would focus on a space system for both sensors (which already exist) and real interceptors.

From the point of view of the threat, the timing is certainly fair. China and Russia build very dangerous, destabilizing and fatal hypersonic cruise missiles for conventional or nuclear strikes, traveling several times at sound, much faster than systems today.

They also have the capacity to maneuver at high speed, which makes them almost impossible to strike with current systems. The technical challenges are breathtaking. What are the chances of success? And what new systems could contribute to a successful iron dome that can really protect America?

I know the world of air defense very well. Throughout my long career in the Navy, I served in the world’s anti-aearian war vessels in the world, the cruisers and destroyers equipped with the AEGIS Volved Air Defense system (“Shield” in Greek) . What I have learned are how difficult it is to design, build, train and even exploit a single air defense system on a dedicated ship with hundreds of crew members picked in the ‘Relatively simple tactical environment to be at sea – without surrounding civil communities, infrastructure or target of collateral damage to consider.

Much later in my career, when I was the supreme NATO ally, I was involved in the supervision of military cooperation at American military. I looked at the Israelis, among the best in the world in air defense, to fight to exploit a complex multilayer system with vulnerable civilian populations in and around their big cities. In addition to their iron dome, they had to integrate longer-range systems (Sling and Arrow by David) as well as react to satellite intelligence (a large part provided by the United States).

I therefore have healthy respect for what the Ministry of Defense and the main defense entrepreneurs must create an effective system to protect all of the United States from such a wide range of threats.

Three elements will be crucial for the success of a new iron dome.

First will be the ability to have spatial sensors and interceptors.

Without the true vision of “God” of the whole of the air, the sea and the earthly space below, effective defenses will be impossible. As with the Reagan plan, such space systems will be disputed from the point of view of arms; Other nations will rightly see them as destabilizing and climbing. Space -based sensors are already largely in place. The real challenge, as was the case for “Star Wars”, will be to base effective interceptors in space.

A second crucial element will be artificial intelligence – the ability to use AI to knit space sensors and interceptors with terrestrial air defense systems (Earth Aegis, Floor Interceptors and other current technologies).

Given the rapid AI progress, it will probably be a reasonably good bet for success.

The third element which can ultimately be the most difficult to design, build and implement will be a new method to destroy incoming missiles: lasers.

The Air Defense Community has continued this chimera for decades. Frustration for air defenders often does not have enough defensive missiles – testifies to the challenges of the American navy in the fight against missiles and relatively primitive Houthi drones off the coasts of the Red Sea.

The promise of lasers is simple: high power beams are the means to destroy enemy systems. You never lack missiles and your system moves at the speed of light, much faster than a conventional defensive missile. But the technical challenges remain very high, despite the recent success of the navy with the Helios system.

Lasers have the impression of being the air defense weapon of the future … forever. It will be the most difficult of the three elements of the system and seems to be the most distant. But a really effective iron dome system is difficult to imagine without laser component, given the nature and the high -speed possibilities to be exceeded and to lack conventional air defense missiles.