Are arsonists responsible for the Los Angeles wildfires?

The key to identifying the cause of Palisades that still rage Fanger sits on a brush-covered hillside where the fire broke out shortly after 10:30 a.m. Tuesday.

Fire investigators are still working to determine what started hellbut experts say it’s easy to rule out a common cause of wildfires: lightning. The region has not experienced any storms this week. The area near the Temescal Ridge Trail also appears to be free of power lines or transformers, ruling out another potential cause.

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The source of most forest fires remains: people. But was it the result of arson? Four experts interviewed by NBC News said it was a possibility, but they believed the fires were probably not started intentionally.

“This is what we call inaccessible, rugged terrain,” said Rick Crawford, a former battalion chief with the Los Angeles Fire Department. “Arsonists are generally not going to walk 500 feet from a trailhead through trees and brush, start a fire and then run away.”

Fires break out all the time in wooded areas outside Los Angeles – lots of them caused unintentionally by homeless people. Fires almost never turn into destructive blazes due to the lack of strong winds. The combination of strong winds and a parched landscape created ideal conditions for the fast-moving fires that ravaged large swaths of Los Angeles this week.

“You don’t need a bunch of arsonists to go out there and start fires, because nature takes care of that for you,” said Scott Fischer, a retired federal arson investigator.

“There are arsonists out there,” he added, “but is there a gang of arsonists going around in Los Angeles right now? It’s unlikely.

Copycat arson is, however, a known phenomenon. Experts said they wouldn’t be surprised if one of the smaller fires that broke out after the Palisades fire was intentionally started.

“When you’re faced with a major fire like this as is the case in Los Angeles, sometimes you get people to go out and start a fire,” said Terry Taylor, a retired wildfire investigator who now works as an instructor. “It’s a copy. … It happens from time to time.”

Taylor and the other experts said those answers are unlikely to come anytime soon because determining arson usually requires a lengthy investigation.

Eaton Fire

The Eaton fire, the second largest to wreak havoc in Los Angeles, is not among those likely to have been started by an arsonist, experts say. It erupted Tuesday evening in an area east of Altadena, where a collection of high-voltage transmission lines floats.

Given the area and weather conditions, fire experts said their first thought was power lines. High winds can cause lines to snap, releasing small balls of very hot molten metal.

“If the ground is really dry and the wind blows and poof, you have a fire,” said Ed Nordskog, a retired Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department detective who spent his career investigating arsonists .

But that’s just one potential scenario. It’s also possible that it was started by someone using a camp stove, car or lawn mower that threw a burning spark onto dry grass, Nordskog said.

As for the possibility that this was intentionally planted, Nordskog said it was unlikely.

“Most of the time these fires are not arson,” he said. “There is no data confirming that winds bring out arsonists.”

“Inch by inch”

Identifying the cause of a fire is a highly specialized and painstaking endeavor, experts say.

The first step is to figure out where it all started. Things like burn patterns and charred debris can provide crucial clues.

Next comes the most detailed and laborious part of the process. Investigators will lay out a grid at the scene, usually with string, and literally crawl on their hands and knees looking for footprints or other clues.

Investigators often use metal detectors and magnifying glasses, or even binoculars, to help them in their search.

“They will advance inch by inch, and it will take hours,” Nordskog said. “It’s not fun.”

In the case of the Eaton fire, investigators will likely use magnets to help them search for tiny pieces of molten metal that might have been thrown by power lines if they collided. But the existence of the metal doesn’t necessarily indicate that’s how the fire started, Nordskog said.

“It still needs to be determined whether the spark from the power lines was because things were already on fire or what started the fire,” he said. “There’s so much going on in an investigation, so many factors. If someone immediately tells you what caused the fire, they must have seen it.

If investigators find evidence that the fire was started by a person, then they must determine whether it was the result of an accident, negligence, or an intentional act.

John Abatzoglou, a professor of climatology at the University of California, Merced, examined 30 years of government data on fires in Los Angeles County. It showed that the most common causes of wildfires between 1992 and 2020 were accidents related to vehicles and other equipment.

“More than 95% of these fires are caused by humans,” he wrote in an email. “Arson is one of the causes, but most human-caused fires are unintentional. »

“The best players in the world”

The prospect of arsonists burning down Los Angeles gained traction on social media Thursday when a group of people in Woodland Hills arrested a man they suspected of starting a trash fire. The man was arrested, but there was not sufficient probable cause to charge him with arson. police officials said Friday. He was instead arrested for violating criminal probation.

In addition to the Palisades and Eaton fires, four others burned in Los Angeles. The causes remain under investigation.

A law enforcement task force has been set up to find out the causes of the fires. The local agencies involved – the Los Angeles Fire Department, the county police department and sheriff’s department, as well as Cal Fire – are considered among the most capable in the country. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is investigating.

“Everything is absolutely on the table,” Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said at a news conference Saturday.

It may take several days for investigators to determine the causes of the fires. Determining whether a fire started by a person constitutes a criminal act could take several months or even years, experts said.

With the number of fire victims at age 11, efforts to discover the causes should continue for as long as necessary.

“You’re going to have the best players to be able to solve the problem,” said Crawford, the retired Los Angeles battalion chief.