ASEAN must recalibrate its strategy to end the Myanmar crisis

WITH Myanmar’s civil war worsening, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) ministers met in Bangkok last week to step up efforts to persuade the ruling junta to Yangon to accept a peace plan.

The junta, which overthrew the duly elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, is gradually losing ground to rebel forces. As the ministers met, the Arakan Army, an ethnic militia part of the rebel alliance, captured a key army headquarters in western Myanmar.

Last August, another anti-government faction, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, seized a regional command headquarters in the northeast.

In response, the army adopted “scorched earth” tactics and intensified air and artillery attacks against civilian targets.

The conflict has left at least 5,000 Burmese dead. “A third of the population is in urgent need of humanitarian assistance,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at a recent ASEAN meeting. “Millions of people have been forced to flee their homes.”

Guterres urged Myanmar’s neighbors “to leverage their influence” to achieve peace.

Asean pressured the junta to accept the five-point consensus, a plan calling for a ceasefire, dialogue, the appointment of an Asean mediator, the provision humanitarian aid and sending a delegation to Myanmar to meet all parties concerned.

Junta leader General Min Aung Hlaing has ignored Asean’s call, convinced that the bloc’s cumbersome consensus process will work in his favor. So far, that’s the case.

Asean itself recognizes the “substantially insufficient progress” in the implementation of the peace plan. The Myanmar issue has actually divided the regional group. Some members are calling for tougher action against the junta, while others prefer a more conciliatory approach.

The impasse created a situation in which there was “no consensus to re-engage or develop new approaches.”

“This organization is not intended to exclude. It is not intended to punish,” underlined a political observer. “It’s always been about inclusion and allowing countries to do things at their own pace. He’s not expected to act in a way he hasn’t done before.”

The United States and several Western countries have attempted to increase pressure on the junta by imposing an economic embargo on the generals and their cronies, but its effect has been minimal.

China, by far, has been the most active in trying to broker a truce between government forces and insurgents for two reasons: It is uncomfortable with the prospect of Burmese refugees streaming into its territory , and she wants the military to be more resolute in cracking down on scam centers in the country where thousands of Chinese citizens and other foreigners have been forced to work.

Beijing has even been receptive to the promise of some rebel groups to close the fraud centers once they have taken control of them.

ASEAN must recalibrate its approach to the Myanmar crisis.

The Bangkok meeting simply reaffirmed Asean’s support for the five-point consensus. This will not be enough to make a significant difference. The junta deserves more than just a slap on the wrist; he must be held accountable for the violations he committed in attempting to suppress dissent.

Human rights experts propose urgent ‘change of course’ in international response as current measures ‘remain largely inadequate and lack the coordination and strategic targeting needed to provide the support the people of Myanmar need and that he deserves.”

“There are now 6,000 reminders that the international community is failing the people of Myanmar,” the Human Rights Council-appointed experts said. “It’s time for change, starting with bringing this disaster out of the shadows of international attention.”

Governments and donors must step up support for civil society organizations documenting abuses and providing humanitarian aid in Myanmar, they said.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim set the tone earlier by calling for “multi-pronged and more creative avenues” regarding Myanmar. “Failure to act when there is good reason to believe that a member state is violating the spirit of the ASEAN Charter constitutes a dereliction of our moral duty,” Anwar said.

Asean would be woefully negligent if it did not respond to Anwar’s call.