Where Mountain West teams are playing in Bracketology updates

Each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament, I will post a Mountain West Bracketology update. The conference had the league’s top six teams competing in last year’s NCAA tournament, but they will be lower than that in March. This should remain a multiple bid league. We’ll look at the metrics for each of these schools vying for an at-large spot, plus Nevada, which includes their NET and KenPom rankings, as well as the latest ESPN, CBS, Fox and Bart Torvik Bracketology projections as well as the consensus Bracket Matrix. .

*****

State of Utah

Save: 16-2, 6-1 MW (tied for first)

NET: 39 (compared to 33)

KenPom: 49

ESPN Bracketology: Seed #6

CBS Bracketology: Seed #6

Fox Bracketology: Seed #6

Bart Torvik: Seed #9

Support matrix: On 59 slices out of 59 (average seed of 6.10)

In short: Utah State lost at UNLV on Wednesday night to pick up its second loss, both in the Quad 2 category (the other to UC San Diego). This will anchor the Aggies at least one spot on those No. 6 seed Bracketology projections above. But Utah State is 4-0 in Quad 1 games and 7-2 in Quad 1 or 2 competition, a high total (tied for the seventh-most wins in Quad 1/ 2 in the country). UNLV’s loss cost Utah State six spots in the NET rankings, and KenPom’s rating of 49 isn’t great. But road wins at San Diego State, Saint Mary’s and Nevada as well as victories over Iowa, St. Bonaventure and North Texas, all NET Top 75 teams, add up to a strong resume that would give Utah State a single-digit seed if he continues on this path. path.

*****

San Diego State

Save: 11-4, 4-2 MW (tied for fourth)

NET: 40 (compared to 39)

KenPom: 35

ESPN Bracketology: Seed #9

CBS Bracketology: Seed #11

Fox Bracketology: Seed #8

Bart Torvik: Seed #9

Support matrix: On 59 out of 59 slices (average seed 9.02)

In short: San Diego State is 2-3 in Quad 1 games and 2-1 in Quad 2 games, a 4-4 record that doesn’t scream “overall bid.” But the Aztecs will get a national reputation and beat non-conference Houston (NET 3) and Creighton (NET 51). A road win at Boise State and a season-opening win over a good UC San Diego team that dominated Utah State helps. SDSU doesn’t have any bad losses but it only has two projected Quad 1 games left, so it can’t afford bad losses and needs to work in its remaining Quad 2 games (five of those projected in advance). The Aztecs are in a strong, but not dominant, position to get an at-large bid on a weakened MW.

*****

New Mexico

Save: 14-4, 6-1 (tied for first place)

NET: 61 (instead of 62)

KenPom: 59

ESPN Bracketology: Last four in

CBS Bracketology: Seed #10

Fox Bracketology: Last four in

Bart Torvik: First Four Out

Support Matrix: On 41 slices out of 59 (average seed of 10.63)

In short: New Mexico took a bad loss to SJSU this weekend to go along with their bad loss to NMSU, putting the Lobos at 2-2 in Quad 3 games, which isn’t ideal and influences these mediocre NETs (61) and KenPom (59). ) brands. New Mexico’s only Quad 1 win is against a UCLA team that is struggling in the Big Ten, with the Bruins losing four in a row and five of six, which takes some of the shine off this win. The strength of New Mexico’s resume is in Quad 2 games where the team is 5-1 (wins over USC, VCU, Nevada, San Diego State and Colorado State ). Having one of these in the Quad category would be important for the Lobos, who are in First Four In/Last Four Out limbo with four projected Quad 1 games remaining to improve that position.

*****

Boise State

Save: 13-5, 5-2 (third)

NET: 44 (level from 44)

KenPom: 51

ESPN Bracketology: Not on the ground

CBS Bracketology: Not on the ground

Fox Bracketology: Not on the ground

Bart Torvik: First Four Out

Support matrix: Out of 0 of 59 slices (no medium seed)

In short: We’ll include Boise State even though the Broncos are clearly off the field at the moment. Boise State does not have Quad status for an at-large bid, being 1-1 in Quad 1s; 1-3 in Quad 2; 4-0 in Quad 3; and 6-1 in Quad 4. Going 2-4 in Quad 1 or 2 games won’t get it done, although the Broncos have non-league wins over Saint Mary’s (NET 32) and Clemson (NET 35), which will be huge if Boise State does any damage in the MW (they narrowly lost to Utah State in a Quad 1 game). A Quad 4 loss to Boston College (NET 231) certainly doesn’t help. The Broncos certainly need a top-three regular season finish in the MW to secure an at-large bid with three projected Quad 1 games and five Quad 2 games remaining.

*****

Nevada has decent NET (69) and KenPom (65) numbers, but isn’t in the mix for an at-large bid given his record of 0-2 in Quad 1 games and 3-4 in Quad 3 games. Not enough quality wins and too many subpar losses. The Wolf Pack has three projected Quad 1 games left (at Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State) and five projected Quad 2 games (San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico at home plus road games with Colorado State and UNLV) to try to get back into the mix. We’ll probably have to go 6-1 in these games, which seems unlikely.

State of Colorado doesn’t have the NET (85) or KenPom (82) numbers to dream of an at-large bid after a poor non-league run that included a 6-5 record. The Rams are 1-2 in Quad 1 games (Nevada win being the win) and 1-4 in Quad 2 games (win vs. TCU on neutral field), so it’s 2-6 in quality matches with a Quad 4 loss (UC Riverside) was launched. Colorado State played better in MW action and will try to secure the automatic berth in the Big Dance via the conference tournament. Colorado State and Nevada appear poised to battle it out for the fifth and final berth in the MW tournament.

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.