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Ding dong, Miami is dead, but did Ole Miss deserve the CFP ranking against Alabama?

Umito
Ding dong, Miami is dead, but did Ole Miss deserve the CFP ranking against Alabama?

The College Football Playoff selection committee made their chairman’s comments from a week earlier look ridiculous, and they should all be commended for it.

To a certain extent.

To the point of Miami The Hurricanes are eliminated from CFP matchups with Tuesday’s penultimate ranking. That’s the big thing the 13-person committee got right Tuesday, and it proved a pleasant surprise after several weeks of overestimating the Canes, after chairman Warde Manuel seemed to telegraph that Miami’s relative low profile would not count against him.

“Teams can only play the (conference) schedule presented to them,” Manuel said after the previous ranking. “They can only face the opponents they have. So we think we’re really going to look at these games, we’re going to look at the stats, we’re going to look at the strength of the schedule, but we’re also going to look at how the teams perform against the competition that they have. From our perspective, if it was just a tight schedule, we wouldn’t be needed.

This comment came before Miami lost 42-38 to Syracuse. Still, this could have been used to justify keeping the Hurricanes 10-2, and it almost did. They went from No. 6 to No. 12, with 9-3 Alabama jump two places to #11 and take the last at-large bid from now on – if #17 Clemson beats n°8 EMS in the ACC title game, SMU could hang on and knock off Alabama.

In penalizing Miami, the committee thought beyond just counting total losses, valued good wins over “good losses,” and kicked out a team with a poor schedule and no ranked wins. It’s not Miami’s fault that he didn’t play against Clemson and SMU this season, but it’s not to his credit either.

It’s to the credit, or good fortune, of SEC Three – three-loss Alabama, Ole Mademoiselle And South Carolina – that they played and beat better teams than Miami. The Hurricanes should have fallen below everyone, which has nothing to do with the ACC/SEC and everything to do with the overall job.

Plus, the more I watch it, the more I think #13 Ole Miss should have gotten the nod for Alabama. This one is very, very close. No. 14 South Carolina also has a case, but when it’s this close and the Gamecocks lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, the head-to-head results should register and differentiate. And they did.

First, let’s celebrate the positive, with all due respect to Miami. In previous rankings, the committee seemed to value those who confused “good defeats” with quality victories (this is still the case with State of Pennsylvaniafor the record). As someone who made fun NCAA As part of the men’s basketball selection process and having observed this process for a long time, wins mean more to this committee than losses. This committee basically asks, “Can this team win games in this tournament?” »

Miami could have done some damage. Certainly, Cam Room and the Hurricanes can score, leading the nation with 44.2 points per game. ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who covers the committee, noted that he “likes this offense and Cam Ward” in predicting Miami would hold on Tuesday.

Ward is second in the nation with 343.6 passing yards per game, behind Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord – has anyone mentioned recently that they played for Ohio State? – at 360.5 per match. McCord helped those numbers with a stunning 380 and three touchdowns in Saturday’s upset of the Hurricanes to propel Cuse 9-3 in the standings to 22nd.

That moved Miami back to 60th nationally in defense (23.9) and 42nd in yards per play allowed (5.19). Against a calendar ranked No. 68 in Athletics metric from analyst Austin Mock.

Of course, the last outing that cost Miami a spot in the ACC title game was a close loss, as was a 28-23 to 7-5 loss. Georgia Tech on November 9. But the Hurricanes’ best win this season continues to be a 52-45 escape to a Louisville team that failed to return to the rankings after beating their rival Kentucky.

The SEC Three also only got to play the schedules presented to them, and Ole Miss came away with a 28-10 home victory over No. 5. Georgia and a 27-3 road victory over South Carolina. Alabama beat Georgia 41-34, South Carolina 27-25 and 19th place Missouri 34-0, all at home.

South Carolina may be playing as well as anyone — and that’s something the committee should discuss, too. Is a team getting better or worse? South Carolina and Miami, for example, appear to be teams going in different directions. South Carolina just beat Clemson 17-14 on the road. The Gamecocks also beat Missouri 34-30 and newly unranked Texas A&M 44-20.

All of these wins from The SEC Three are better than any of Miami’s wins. Transitive football tells us that Miami crushed 7-5 Florida on the road, 41-17, while Ole Miss blew it by losing 24-17 at Florida on November 23. That counts as the other notable win on Miami’s schedule, but anyone who has watched Florida this season also sees a dramatic improvement from September. to November.

Ole Miss also lost at home to Kentucky 4-8, which is bad. And lost 29-26 to LSUwhich is not the case. I’m giving Ole Miss the edge over Alabama (which is a change from the 12 I submitted after Saturday’s results, for the record) based on current quality of play.

Alabama lost 40-35 to 6-6 Vanderbilt24-17 at No. 7 Tennessee and, recently and alarmingly, 24-3 to 6-6 Oklahoma. This one moves Ole Miss forward in my mind. South Carolina actually has the best losses, to the other two of the SEC Three and to LSU. Once again, wins beat losses. Yeah, committee.

Strength of the calendar ranking? South Carolina 12, Alabama 19, Ole Miss 51. That might be the difference for Alabama. I don’t think it’s a brand name, although I expect Lane Kiffin to amplify all of these complaints from Ole Miss fans in the days to come.

It’s so close. Certainly closer than Miami to any of the three.

(Photo by Mario Cristobal: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)