Singapore core inflation in November at 1.9% year-on-year, lowest in almost 3 years

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s key consumer price gauge rose 1.9% in November on an annual basis, lower than economists’ forecasts and the smallest rise in almost three years, data shows official published Monday.

The core inflation rate – which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs – was lower than the 2.1% forecast in a Reuters survey of economists and compared with the 2.1% rise observed in October.

This is the smallest increase since November 2021, when it increased by 1.6%.

Headline inflation stood at 1.6% in annual terms in November, lower than the 1.8% expected in the poll.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore forecast core inflation of around 2% in the fourth quarter.

Slowing inflation allowed Singapore’s central bank to ease monetary policy in January, but analysts said MAS could wait until later in 2025 due to the policies of new US President Donald Trump.

The MAS left monetary policy settings unchanged in October, even as growth accelerated and inflation fell. It has not changed its policy since the October 2022 tightening, which was the fifth consecutive tightening.

Last month, the Commerce Ministry raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.5%, from a previous range of 2.0% to 3.0%, after third-quarter growth exceeded expectations by 5.4%.

Most economists surveyed in a recently released MAS survey expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy during its quarterly reviews in January, April and July.

A third of respondents to the MAS survey expected easing in January via a reduction in the slope of the Singapore dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate, up from half in the previous survey. (Reporting by Bing Hong Lok; Editing by Martin Petty)