Mozambique on edge as judges rule on contested elections

The southern African country has been rocked by unrest since the electoral commission declared that the October 9 vote had been won by the candidate of the Frelimo party, in power since its independence from Portugal in 1975.

The Constitutional Council is expected to announce at 3:00 p.m. (1:00 p.m. GMT) that it validates Frelimo’s victory, thus aligning Daniel Chapo to succeed President Filipe Nysui whose second term ends on January 15.

Shops were closed and streets deserted in the capital Maputo early Monday, despite being at the height of the holiday season.

The main roads leading to the city center were barricaded by the police and access to the presidential palace and the offices of the Constitutional Council were closed, AFP journalists noted.

Opposition leader Venancio Mondlane claims the vote was rigged in favor of Frelimo and that a separate count shows he won enough votes to take office, which he intends to do.

Some thought the opposition’s challenge to the results was “a bluff… (it’s) a joke”, he told his supporters on social media on Saturday. “So they will also be surprised on January 15 when they see Venancio Mondlane take office in Maputo.”

Mondlane has been in voluntary exile since the Oct. 19 assassination of his lawyer, a killing he blames on security forces, and it was unclear whether he intended to return.

“Difficult days will come,” believes the fifty-year-old, who appeals to young disenchanted voters in a country of 33 million inhabitants marked by poverty despite its abundant resources.

“The decision of the Constitutional Council will lead Mozambique either to peace or to chaos,” Mondlane said in an online speech, promising a “new popular uprising on a level never seen before.”

Game changer

The conflict sparked an explosion of protests that paralyzed city centers, disrupted industry and power plants and disrupted operations on the main border with South Africa, causing significant export losses to its neighbor .

Police were accused of firing live ammunition at protesters, killing at least 130 people, according to the civil society group Plataforma Decide, whose figures were cited by Amnesty International.

The US government on Thursday raised its warning level against travel to Mozambique ahead of the Constitutional Council’s announcement.

Pope Francis on Sunday called for dialogue and goodwill to “prevail over distrust and discord” in Mozambique.

President Nyusi and Mondlane had spoken, both men confirmed last week, without announcing any results.

In an address to the nation on Friday, Nyusi said he hoped that once the final results were declared, all parties would “open their hearts to constructive and inclusive dialogue.”

Preliminary results put Mondlane in second place in the presidential vote with 20 percent to Chapo’s 71 percent. Mondlane says a separate tally shows he won 53 percent to Chapo’s 36 percent.

The protests were the “most dangerous” ever seen in Mozambique, analyst Borges Nhamirre said, continuing despite deaths and arrests, and intensifying with the burning of police stations and Frelimo offices.

“Protests have already been called for Monday. Major cities, including Maputo, will be under siege due to fear of protests,” he said.

“I am convinced that if on Monday the Constitutional Council declares the elections free and fair, which I 100% agree with, then blood will flow,” Johann Smith, a political and security risk analyst based in in Maputo.

“The whole game changes on Monday,” Smith said. “It will be much more intense and bloodier.”

Mondlane has awakened resentment against Frelimo, he says, similar to the discontent that this year rejected the party that had governed Botswana since independence and had threatened to do the same in Namibia.

“It’s almost like the Southern African Spring,” Smith said, referring to the Arab Spring anti-government protests in North Africa in the 2010s.