Why does the United States want China’s help to end the war in Ukraine? What benefits can Beijing gain from a weakened Russia?

Last update:December 17, 2024, 2:39 p.m. IST

China could tip the balance of power due to the prolonged war of attrition in Ukraine, leading to a long-term weakening of Russia. So, China would like to continue the war in Ukraine.

If China helps Donald Trump broker a Russia-Ukraine deal, the tariff war could ease. Draining U.S. resources to defend Ukraine would alienate it from the Indo-Pacific region, which is a competition between China and the United States. (AP file photo)

US President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration on January 20. Although Jinping is expected to decline the “surprise” invitation, the move appears to be a genuine commitment by the new US administration to establishing peace in Ukraine. .

After meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris, Trump said on social media: “There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. China can help. » So this latest remark attracted worldwide attention as Trump invited Jinping to the presidential inauguration.

Trump told Time magazine in an interview last week that he had a “very good plan” to help, but if he reveals it now, “it almost becomes a worthless plan.”

But China, which has been Russia’s all-time ally, has refrained from criticizing Vladimir Putin. While Beijing has denied providing military assistance to Moscow, reports suggest that Beijing would allow some goods used on the battlefield to be sent to Russia.

Let’s understand how hard Trump will negotiate a ceasefire agreement with Russia and Ukraine, how much diplomatic weight is he willing to exert to persuade China and what will happen anyway?

What are Trump’s plans to end the war?

After winning the November presidential election, Trump declared that the “horrible war” was “nasty” and that “we are trying to end the war.” He lamented the destroyed cities in Ukraine and the losses on both sides, affirming the real losses. will ultimately be much higher than what kyiv and Moscow have announced so far.

“Everyone is killed, it’s the worst carnage this world has seen since World War II. This must stop,” he said, adding that his administration would speak with both Russian President Putin and Ukraine’s Zelensky.

Trump’s transition team is working on a plan to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table, and the businessman has suggested that kyiv and Moscow will have to compromise.

He suggested that the Russian military could have spared kyiv because the Kremlin would eventually use or occupy it. “They did a lot of damage but relatively, compared to other cities, it’s very little. But a lot of these other cities are gone, these beautiful towers, these beautiful buildings that they had are now destroyed,” Trump said, as quoted by Politico.

Trump, however, did not condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and refused to say whether he had spoken to Putin. He claimed Zelensky told him he wanted peace.

How the peace deal could strengthen Putin’s position

A Trump-brokered peace deal would lift sanctions and offer Russia the opportunity to build a renewed, more cooperative relationship with the West. The agreement could also contribute to Russia’s international rehabilitation.

China has supplied Russia with industrial inputs, microelectronics, military optics, drone and turbojet engines, armored vehicles, satellite technology and materials like nitrocellulose. This continues to lend credence to Moscow’s narrative that presents Russia as the victim of Western and NATO aggression. Thus, Sino-Russian cooperation constitutes a direct threat to the interests of the United States as well as those of its European allies and partners.

Putin’s top priority in the negotiations will be ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality. This will require a commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO in the future. It will also seek to limit the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and prevent the stationing of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory.

He also hopes to consolidate Russia’s hold on the Crimean peninsula by having its annexation of Ukrainian territory recognized. He will likely demand control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions not yet occupied by Russian forces.

If Trump fails to reignite the historic rivalry between Russia and China, a stronger Kremlin would mean a shift in power dynamics in the partnership between Moscow and Beijing, potentially elevating Putin from junior partner to Xi’s peer , according to The Conversation.

How is China benefiting from the war in Ukraine?

A protracted war of attrition in Ukraine serves China’s interests because it will lead to a long-term weakening of Russia, thereby fundamentally shifting the Sino-Russian balance of power decisively in China’s favor for years to come , said the Atlantic Council.

China benefits from cheap Russian energy, which supports its economy and improves its competitive position in global markets. Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China increased two and a half times in 2022, while its liquefied natural gas exports to China more than doubled. Last year, China also increased its volumes of Russian coal by 20%.

If China helps Trump broker a Russia-Ukraine deal, the U.S. trade and tariff war could ease. Depleting the United States’ resources to defend Ukraine distances it from the Indo-Pacific region, where most of the competition between China and the United States will take place.

The conversation The report also says China will continue the war in Ukraine, rather than helping Trump end it, because it suits Beijing to tip the balance of power.

Thus, in geopolitical terms, the vassalization of Russia and the takeover of Taiwan are important steps toward Xi’s goal of “building China into a great modern socialist country that dominates the world in terms of composite national strength and of international influence in the middle”. of the century.”

How Ukraine appears as a spectator

Zelensky has made serious efforts in recent months to convince Trump that Ukraine’s future is worth fighting for. But there is no indication that his messages were well received by Trump.

Trump seems nonchalant and has no sympathy for Ukraine. Since February 2022, the United States has provided $175 billion in economic and military aid to Kyiv, approximately 7% of total defense spending allocated during this period. Trump clearly sees Ukraine as an opportunity to demonstrate his power to American voters.

kyiv only hopes that Trump will quickly recognize that the peace deal he wants to reach will not materialize, because the issues underlying Russian-Chinese relations are more complex than he imagines.

The only consolation for Ukrainians is that the Kremlin was disappointed with Trump in his first term, because despite his friendly signals, no major results were achieved.