What Trump's presidency means for Afghanistan and the Taliban

During his first term, the administration of US President Donald Trump signed a peace agreement with the Taliban to end two decades of war. The agreement sets a timetable for the United States and its allies to completely withdraw their troops from Afghanistan, while the Taliban commits to “preventing the use of Afghan soil by any group or individual against the security of the United States.” United and their allies. »

Furthermore, under the terms of the agreement, the Taliban was to enter into negotiations with the government of the Afghan Republic, which was not even part of the peace agreement between the Trump administration and the Taliban. Intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government of the time, however, never took place. Instead, the Taliban became the de facto rulers of Afghanistan after taking control of Kabul amid the random withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan during the summer of 2021. Report of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the United States House of Representatives The withdrawal has been characterized as willful blindness on the part of the Biden administration, but it was actually a rescue act for Washington.

In January 2025, Trump will enter the White House for his second term. How will he handle the Taliban issue and make amends for the 2020 Doha agreement?

During his election campaign, Trump slammed the Biden-Harris administration, particularly Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, for the collapse of U.S. respect and credibility in Afghanistan. Asset called US withdrawal from Afghanistan “the most embarrassing moment in our country’s history” and promised there would be consequences for those responsible for the hasty withdrawal. Trump also claimed that if he had been in power at the time, he would have ordered the evacuation of Bagram Airfield rather than Kabul Airport, where a suicide bomber killed at least 182 people. including 13 U.S. personnel supporting the evacuation mission.

However, in response to Trump’s remarks, Harris’ campaign highlighted Trump’s announcement of a meeting with Taliban leaders at Camp David – an offer he then abruptly rescinded – and the role played by the agreement his administration signed with the current de facto leaders of the Afghanistan in the American withdrawal. Harris’ campaign stressed that Trump’s deal with the Taliban set the stage for a virtually impossible deadline, which left the Biden administration with no plans for an orderly withdrawal from the country.

It’s easy to point fingers when you’re not in the office. But the situation has reversed and the ball is once again in President-elect Trump’s court. Once he returns to power, he will have to decide how his administration will deal with the Taliban.

In Trump, Afghanistan sees a familiar face – the man who plunged them into this chaos. Afghanistan’s de facto leaders, however, see a different picture. The Taliban leaders see a man who gave in to their demands and agreed to negotiate directly with them without regard for the former government of the Afghan Republic. In the new Trump administration, the Taliban sees a new opportunity to sit around the table with U.S. officials to discuss the fate and future of Afghanistan, likely without any other group in the country. They expect an improvement in relations between the United States and the Taliban, or even diplomatic recognition under the Trump presidency.

The Taliban Foreign Ministry expressed hope after recent election results, saying the new Trump administration would take a pragmatic approach to bilateral relations that could allow Taliban-ruled Kabul and Washington to open a new chapter in their relations based on mutual commitment. . It is pertinent to note here that the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is not formally recognized by any country, including the United States.

On the other hand, the Trump administration could take a different approach and put more pressure on the Taliban to form an inclusive government, which is part of the Doha agreement and a precondition for the Taliban obtain diplomatic recognition. Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio, is a die-hard critic of the Taliban and considers Taliban-led Afghanistan a direct threat to the national security interests of the United States and its partners in Central Asia and the Middle East. Rubio also wants the Taliban to be designated as a foreign terrorist organization.

Given these speculations, Trump’s presidency risks becoming a quagmire for the Afghan people, who have lived under Taliban rule for more than three years now. Some experts expect that Trump’s presidency will have economic repercussions for Afghanistanfacing a humanitarian crisis since the capture of Kabul by the Taliban. The United States has been the largest donor of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan since August 2021. This aid, however, has seen a significant decline over the past two years and it appears likely that it will decline further under Trump’s presidency. Trump could also decide to provide humanitarian aid as usual, but under certain conditions that would increase the vulnerabilities of the Afghan people already in crisis. In such a situation, the only group that would suffer would be the Afghan people, especially Afghan women and girls.

Responsibility for the current situation in Afghanistan lies with the first Trump administration and the subsequent Biden administration. Trump now has the opportunity to make amends and alleviate the suffering of the Afghan people. His previous administration, despite several ups and downs, managed to negotiate a deal, albeit imperfect, with the rogue group. He should therefore bring the Taliban to the negotiating table to ensure that they respect the commitments made under the Doha agreement.

But this time, instead of giving in to the Taliban’s demands, his administration should ensure that all Afghan groups participate in negotiations for lasting peace in Afghanistan. Only inclusive negotiations will bring peace to the Afghan people and guarantee them a secure future in their own country.