Muslim and Arab voters face uncertain political future under Trump

Muslim and Arab American voters in the United States face an uncertain political future as President-elect Trump prepares to take office later this month.

Long considered a reliable part of the Democratic base, Muslim Americans have scrambled the political calculus in 2024, amid growing fury over President Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, with many abandoning the party altogether .

Today, many Muslim and Arab Americans say they are without a clear political home, angry at what they see as Democrats’ refusal to heed their warnings and worried about what a Trump presidency means for them and for conflicts in the Middle East.

“This hotbed is no longer as strong,” said Haris Tarin, vice president of policy and programming at the Muslim Public Affairs Council, calling the Democratic Party a political “hotbed.” “After 9/11, the vote was pretty strong in many ways, especially because of the civil rights issues, but I think that vote is no longer as strong as many thought.”

Although President Biden easily recruited enough delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee during his campaign and Vice President Harris quickly wrapped up the nomination after Biden withdrew, both saw significant discontent among voters Democrats who wanted more choice.

This was particularly organized around those who opposed the administration’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Two major campaigns were mounted during Biden’s candidacy and continued with Harris’ candidacy around this frustration, one encouraging voters to vote “uncommitted” in the primaries and to remain that way unless the candidate accepts certain policies, such as imposing conditions on aid to Israel.

The other was a “Give Up” campaign, calling on voters to reject the Democratic ticket altogether. This group ultimately supported Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while the Uncommit movement came out against Trump’s candidacy but avoided supporting Harris.

Both groups have particularly sought to appeal to Muslim Americans frustrated with the administration and those who sympathize with it. They argued there were warning signs for Democrats with these voters who could not be counted on to support their ticket as they had reliably done over the past two decades.

The exact distribution varies depending on exit polls and location, but the results largely showed a significant change in voting behavior compared to previous elections.

Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) exit poll find Stein won among Muslim Americans nationwide, with 53 percent of the vote, compared to 21 percent for Trump and 20 percent for Harris. A poll specifically for Michigan showed Stein leading with 59 percent to Trump’s 22 percent and Harris’ 14 percent.

CAIR’s pre-election polling also found Harris struggling with this group that had voted overwhelmingly for Democrats this century.

After the election, the Abandon movement seeks to make this moment a turning point in political identity so that Muslim Americans do not feel beholden to either side.

“Now we are going to somehow build a collective whose loyalty does not belong to any party or party, not even to the Green Party,” said Hudhayfah Ahmad, a spokesperson for the movement. “We want to build a collective that votes on the basis of morals and principles.”

Ahmad said the movement expects Trump will “absolutely disappoint” in his second term and tell people they should try a “third way.”

“It’s not about winning, it’s about changing the conversation,” he said. “It’s not about winning. It’s about doing the right thing. Winning is not important because we have sacrificed many of our principles in the name of victory, in the name of the lesser evil, in the name of a… greater good that never really materialized.

Tarin said Muslim Americans want politicians to earn their vote and the lesson is: “You have to listen to us. You need to involve us.

“I think it’s a newer thing for this community. Historically, they haven’t had this level of responsiveness for a few years in the Democratic Party because of civil rights issues,” he said.

Some advocates involved in Muslim or Arab American organizations mentioned the frustrations these voters felt because no Palestinian American speakers were allowed to address the Democratic National Convention this summer.

James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, noted that having a Palestinian speaker had the support of many people, including the Israeli-American family who addressed the convention, and that those who blocked it were “disconnected” from the situation of the electorate. .

Zogby noted that Muslim Americans and Arab Americans are often confused to be the same group, even though most Muslims are not Arab and most Arab Americans are not Muslim.

But both groups have drawn attention to their frustration and have been less supportive of the Democratic ticket than in the past, which could be a warning sign for the future.

In the majority-Arab city of Dearborn, Michigan, Trump won a plurality of votes after Biden won overwhelmingly in 2020.

The Arab American Institute found that Biden gained 25 points among Arab Americans in 2020, but Zogby said that this year the community was likely “evenly divided.” He said every other demographic group was represented on stage at the DNC, but not someone of Arab descent, and that the administration was unwilling to change its position.

“It’s a wound to the heart that’s going to take a long time to heal,” Zogby said. “Will this be decisive in the elections? I don’t know. It depends on the candidates, the policy mix and other issues.”

Wa’el Alzayat, CEO of Emgage, which works to educate and unite Muslim voters to be civically active, noted that although the Muslim community was more divided in its vote, it was still united on his political position.

“Unlike typical divides, these weren’t people fighting for a position on gun violence or abortion. Everyone was saying, “We have to end the war.” We want the hostages to return home. We want humanitarian aid to be delivered,” he said. “But the tactics to get there, there were different approaches, and obviously and unfortunately, none of it worked, the war is still ongoing.”

“Clearly the community is now grappling with two issues. The first is that the war continues and Trump returns,” Alzayat added.

But the fact that Muslim voters were largely on the same page despite their final choice at the polls shows how both sides can try to win them over in the future, advocates said.

“I don’t think the Democrats have necessarily lost the American Muslim world forever, nor do I think the Republicans have won it forever,” Tarin said. “I don’t think that’s the case anyway.”

But Tarin noted that many Muslim voters did not feel enough of a difference between how Trump would approach the war and how Biden approached the war. Trump recently said he wanted the war to end, but he also would have said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “Do what you have to do. »

“A lot of people say, ‘Well, I mean, how much worse can Trump be in Gaza?’ “, said Tarin. “It’s a phrase we hear quite often in American Muslim communities. How much worse can it get? What Biden has not done or allowed Netanyahu to do that Trump would allow him to do on this issue is really difficult.”

Adding to demographic uncertainty going forward are renewed concerns about Islamic terrorism following a deadly attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, which has been linked to a suspect with apparent ties with ISIS. What this means for the American Muslim community under Trump obviously remains to be seen.

Alzayat said one reason for hope is that Muslim voters have demonstrated their political power and must be taken seriously and listened to.

“If you have 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, and 70% of them voted for Democrats in 2020, and only 30% of them voted for Democrats in 2024, that represents a change by 80,000 votes,” he said. “That’s too big a margin to ignore.”

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