The truth about the 2024 year old asteroid and why you shouldn't worry yet (again)

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The media are full of reports of a “city killer” called 2024 years which is intended to have an impact on earth in 2032, with astronomers on the point of being left helpless while it moves away from telescopes until 2028. What experts think.

The planned orbit of the asteroid 2024 years4.

ESA

Key facts

All asteroids orbit the sun, and some have orbital paths that cross those of the earth. This is the case with 2024 YR4, one of the approximately 20,000 Apollo-who type asteroids orbit the sun at about the same distance as the earth, the same goes for a potential threat.

2024 YR4 orbit the sun every four years of earth, it therefore passes relatively near the earth once every four years. It happened. 2024 years old was found, for the first time, by the Asteroid terrestrial impact alert system On December 27, 2024, two days after her closest approach, when she arrived at less than 515,000 miles (828,800 kilometers) of earth, about twice as much as the moon.

His four -year -old orbit increased astronomers to examine the images of the archives of telescopes in the sky of 2020, 2016, 2012 and so on. Its trajectory also means that it is the following which passes near the earth in December 2028 and 2032, when its just calculated orbit potentially has an impact on the earth on December 22, 2032.

There is currently a 2.3% Chance to hit the earth. For this reason, he is at the top of Sentinel List of objects whose orbital trajectories suggest a possible impact on earth in the future. It also has a value of 3 on the Torino impact danger scaleThe list of asteroids of the International Astronomical Union which is close to the Earth. It is higher than any other asteroid, although more data on its orbit is obtained, it should possibly be declared sure.

Should we worry about the asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the earth?

“People pick up stories of somewhat arbitrary fear about killer asteroids, but I think it is a little different,” said Danny Steeghs, leader of the Astronomy and Astrophysics group of the University of Warwick In the United Kingdom, in an interview. “It’s rare. Once every five years, you may have something like that, but especially the threats disappear. Real impact events are all hundred years. »»

An asteroid as threatening as 2024 is worthy of interest because it does not happen very often, but it almost certainly does not strike the earth. “This could increase to 50 times the diameter of the earth,” said Luca Conversi, director of the Neo and Scientist Coordination Center of the Neomir study on the Esrin site of the European Space Agency in Frascati, Italy in Italy , in an interview. Conversi traced the region where the asteroid could pass in 2032. “The uncertainty that we have is much greater than the distance between the earth and the moon,” he said.

If he strikes the earth, he will do it on December 22, 2032, with the “risky corridor” calculated to be done through the eastern peaceful ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, the Africa, the Oman Sea and South Asia, according to Iawn. Astronomers can be exact on this subject because the plan of the asteroid orbit is known, so this risk corridor is unlikely to change a lot, although it would probably shrink if and when an impact is imminent.

What is the size of the asteroid 2024 YR4?

Judging only on the shine of the images of the telescope, 2024 years is considered between 130 and 300 feet (40 and 90 meters) in diameter. It is a huge range that astronomers want to refine. After all, an asteroid of 300 feet. This is the difference between, let’s say, a commercial plane and a large cruise ship. Scientists do not know its density or what it is done either, but it is not ice or metal.

When he was initially picked up in December by the Asteroid terrestrial impact alert system – Using a modest telescope – It was very brilliant. He was also detected by many other telescopes, notably by Steeghs and his colleagues on December 27, 2024, using the Goto Telescope in Australia, which scans the sky for transient objects, therefore sees asteroids by chance. “It is very fast and now we need the greatest telescopes at our disposal to potentially have other measures in the coming weeks and months to try to refine its orbit,” said Steeghs.

Asteroid 2024 years as indicated at the end of December 2024 by the transient optical observer with gravitational waves … (+) (Goto) Telescope in Australia. (used with permission)

Goto / University of Warwick (D.TESEGHS / K.ULACZYK)

Key

According to Sky and telescope350 observations of 2024 YR4 have been made so far by astronomers at more than 50 observatories since the international warning network of asteroids issued a rare warning on January 29, 2025, but it is a race against time . Today, it is half the distance of the earth’s sun in the major Canis constellation and moving away quickly. By April, it will be invisible for optical telescopes on the ground. Nasa The James Webb space telescope will be used To make about four hours of infrared observations in March and May before it also lost the object. His data will focus on the heat of 2024, not his orbit, but can help refine where he could strike.

After these last observations, it will not be before the end of 2028, when 2024 years old approached the earth the next time the astronomers have another view. The problem is that this success will be remote, 2024 YR4 reaching only at less than 4.7 million miles (7.5 million kilometers). This will make radar observations – the only type of observation that could pin the size of the asteroid for sure – impossible. Radar observations will not be viable before 2032, just a few months before being able to strike the earth.

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